prophet_regressor¶
Prophet is a procedure for forecasting time series data based on an additive model where nonlinear trends are fit with yearly, weekly, and daily seasonality, plus holiday effects. It works best with time series that have strong seasonal effects and several seasons of historical data. Prophet is robust to missing data and shifts in the trend, and typically handles outliers well.
Module Contents¶
Classes Summary¶
Prophet is a procedure for forecasting time series data based on an additive model where nonlinear trends are fit with yearly, weekly, and daily seasonality, plus holiday effects. It works best with time series that have strong seasonal effects and several seasons of historical data. Prophet is robust to missing data and shifts in the trend, and typically handles outliers well. 
Contents¶

class
evalml.pipelines.components.estimators.regressors.prophet_regressor.
ProphetRegressor
(date_index=None, changepoint_prior_scale=0.05, seasonality_prior_scale=10, holidays_prior_scale=10, seasonality_mode='additive', random_seed=0, stan_backend='CMDSTANPY', **kwargs)[source]¶ Prophet is a procedure for forecasting time series data based on an additive model where nonlinear trends are fit with yearly, weekly, and daily seasonality, plus holiday effects. It works best with time series that have strong seasonal effects and several seasons of historical data. Prophet is robust to missing data and shifts in the trend, and typically handles outliers well.
More information here: https://facebook.github.io/prophet/
Attributes
hyperparameter_ranges
{ “changepoint_prior_scale”: Real(0.001, 0.5), “seasonality_prior_scale”: Real(0.01, 10), “holidays_prior_scale”: Real(0.01, 10), “seasonality_mode”: [“additive”, “multiplicative”],}
model_family
ModelFamily.PROPHET
modifies_features
True
modifies_target
False
name
Prophet Regressor
predict_uses_y
False
supported_problem_types
[ProblemTypes.TIME_SERIES_REGRESSION]
training_only
False
Methods
Build the Prophet data to pass fit and predict on.
Constructs a new component with the same parameters and random state.
Returns the default parameters for this component.
Describe a component and its parameters.
Returns array of 0’s with len(1) as feature_importance is not defined for Prophet regressor.
Fits Prophet regressor component to data.
Get parameters for the Prophet regressor.
Loads component at file path.
Returns boolean determining if component needs fitting before calling predict, predict_proba, transform, or feature_importances.
Returns the parameters which were used to initialize the component.
Make predictions using fitted Prophet regressor.
Make probability estimates for labels.
Saves component at file path.

static
build_prophet_df
(X, y=None, date_column='ds')[source]¶ Build the Prophet data to pass fit and predict on.

clone
(self)¶ Constructs a new component with the same parameters and random state.
 Returns
A new instance of this component with identical parameters and random state.

default_parameters
(cls)¶ Returns the default parameters for this component.
 Returns
Default parameters for this component.
 Return type
dict

describe
(self, print_name=False, return_dict=False)¶ Describe a component and its parameters.
 Parameters
print_name (bool, optional) – whether to print name of component
return_dict (bool, optional) – whether to return description as dictionary in the format {“name”: name, “parameters”: parameters}
 Returns
Returns dictionary if return_dict is True, else None.
 Return type
None or dict

property
feature_importance
(self)¶ Returns array of 0’s with len(1) as feature_importance is not defined for Prophet regressor.

fit
(self, X, y=None)[source]¶ Fits Prophet regressor component to data.
 Parameters
X (pd.DataFrame) – The input training data of shape [n_samples, n_features].
y (pd.Series) – The target training data of length [n_samples].
 Returns
self

static
load
(file_path)¶ Loads component at file path.
 Parameters
file_path (str) – Location to load file.
 Returns
ComponentBase object

needs_fitting
(self)¶ Returns boolean determining if component needs fitting before calling predict, predict_proba, transform, or feature_importances.
This can be overridden to False for components that do not need to be fit or whose fit methods do nothing.
 Returns
True.

property
parameters
(self)¶ Returns the parameters which were used to initialize the component.

predict
(self, X, y=None)[source]¶ Make predictions using fitted Prophet regressor.
 Parameters
X (pd.DataFrame) – Data of shape [n_samples, n_features].
y (pd.Series) – Target data.
 Returns
Predicted values.
 Return type
pd.Series

predict_proba
(self, X)¶ Make probability estimates for labels.
 Parameters
X (pd.DataFrame) – Features.
 Returns
Probability estimates.
 Return type
pd.Series
 Raises
MethodPropertyNotFoundError – If estimator does not have a predict_proba method or a component_obj that implements predict_proba.

save
(self, file_path, pickle_protocol=cloudpickle.DEFAULT_PROTOCOL)¶ Saves component at file path.
 Parameters
file_path (str) – Location to save file.
pickle_protocol (int) – The pickle data stream format.

static